Table 4 Effects of Unemployment Rate on by Education Level CPS EITC Recipiency Rates—Heterogeneity
  All Children, Married Children, Single No Children
  (1) (2) (3) (4)
Panel A: Individuals with High School Degree or Less
Unemployment rate 0.511** 1 177*** -0.384 0.208
  (0.201) (0.310) (0.628) (0.170)
Mean Y 0.250 0.311 0.573 0.093
Percent impact (%) 2.0 3.8 -0.7 2.2
Observations 663 1,326 1,326 1,326
Panel B: Individuals with Some College or More
Unemployment rate 0.645*** 0.581*** 1.449*** 0.465***
  (0.109) (0.144) (0.385) (0.131)
Mean Y 0.110 0.092 0.458 0.045
Percent impact (%) 5.9 6.3 3.2 10.3
Observations 663 1,326 1,326 1,326

Notes: Data are from the 1997-2009 CPS ASEC, with denominators measuring the number of potential filing units from the CPS ASEC corresponding to the tax year (tax year X matched with survey done in year X). The dependent variable is total number of filers eligible for the EITC, as calculated by the NBER TAXSIM tax calculator, divided by the total number of potential filing units in each cell. Education level is defined according to the family head. All regressions include controls for demographic characteristics, as well as state and year fixed effects. The results are weighted by the population of potential filers in each cell. The unemployment rate is measured in percentage points. Percent impact is calculated as the effect of a 1 percentage point (1 unit) increase in the unemployment rate divided by the mean value of the dependent variable. Standard errors are clustered by state and shown in parentheses. *p < 0.10, **p< 0.05, ***p < 0.01.