Table 8

Effect of Violence Probability of Migrating to the United States: IV Results, 1999–2006

Dependent Variable
Homicide RateTwo-Year Homicide RateThree-Year Homicide Rate
(1)(2)(3)
Panel A: First Stage Estimation
Municipal0.01120.0100.0434
(Campaign/election)(0.028)(0.032)(0.023)
Post_Municipal-0.0179-0.01910.0332
(First year in office)(0.029)(0.026)(0.025)
Excluded variable: Pre_Municipal (second year in office)
F-Statistic0.530.482.16
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM stat1.060.964.31
Chi-sq(2) P-val0.5890.6190.116
Hansen J Statistic2.262.610.43
Chi-sq(2) P-val0.1330.1060.512
Panel B: Second Stage Estimation
Dependent variable: Migration rate
Homicide rate-0.0447-0.0415-0.0554
(0.055)(0.053)(0.035)
Observations16,12016,12016,120

Notes: Standard errors are robust and clustered by municipality. Regressions include year and municipality fixed effects. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.