Effect of Violence in the Probability of Migrating to the United States: IV Results 2007–2012
Dependent Variable | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Homicide Rate | Two-Year Homicide Rate | Three-Year Homicide Rate | Cumulative Homicide Rate | |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
Panel A: First Stage Estimation | ||||
Municipal | -0.679*** | -1.072*** | -1.152*** | -1.383*** |
(Campaign/election) | (0.114) | (0.143) | (0.149) | (0.157) |
Post_Municipal | -0.695*** | -1.036*** | -1.099*** | -1.314*** |
(First year in office) | (0.103) | (0.115) | (0.121) | (0.125) |
Pre_Municipal | -0.577*** | -0.914*** | -0.882*** | -1.007*** |
(Second year in office) | (0.099) | (0.122) | (0.125) | (0.111) |
Excluded variable: Second year in office of a four year appointment | ||||
F-Statistic | 15.32 | 27.21 | 31.74 | 36.41 |
Kleibergen-Paap rk LM stat | 43.45 | 75.89 | 88.37 | 98.29 |
Chi-sq(2) P-val | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Hansen J Statistic | 2.69 | 4.98 | 4.78 | 4.78 |
Chi-sq(2) P-val | 0.261 | 0.083 | 0.092 | 0.092 |
Panel B: Second Stage Estimation | ||||
Dependent variable: Migration rate | ||||
Homicide rate | 0.0138*** | 0.0085*** | 0.0078*** | 0.0064*** |
(0.004) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
[1.38] | [1.82] | [2.35] | [1.89] | |
Observations | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 |
Notes: The elasticity of migration with respect to the homicide rate is shown in square brackets. Standard errors are robust and clustered by municipality. Regressions include year and municipality fixed effects. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.