Effect of Violence on the Probability of Returning to Mexico: IV Results 2007–2012
| Dependent Variable | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Year Homicide Rate | Three-Year Homicide Rate | Cumulative Homicide Rate | |||||||
| Panel A: First Stage Estimation | |||||||||
| Municipal | -0.617*** | -0.631*** | -0.968*** | ||||||
| (Campaign/election) | (0.137) | (0.134) | (0.138) | ||||||
| Post_Municipal | -0.563*** | -0.598*** | -0.978*** | ||||||
| (First year in office) | (0.115) | (0.114) | (0.125) | ||||||
| Pre_Municipal | -0.422*** | -0.394*** | -0.61*** | ||||||
| (Second year in office) | (0.120) | (0.119) | (0.116) | ||||||
| F-Statistic | 10.1 | 15.3 | 27.4 | ||||||
| Kleibergen-Paap rk LM stat | 29.263 | 43.632 | 78.755 | ||||||
| Chi-sq(2) P-val | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||||||
| Hansen J Statistic | 1.194 | 4.803 | 4.315 | ||||||
| Chi-sq(2) P-val | 0.551 | 0.091 | 0.116 | ||||||
| Panel B: Second Stage Estimation | |||||||||
| Dependent variable: Return migration rate | |||||||||
| Two-year homicide rate | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.005 | ||||||
| (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.005) | |||||||
| Three-year homicide rate | 0.006 | 0.002 | 0.004 | ||||||
| (0.004) | (0.002) | (0.004) | |||||||
| Cumulative homicide rate | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.002 | ||||||
| (0.003) | (0.001) | (0.002) | |||||||
| Index violence within states | -0.0353 | -0.0297 | -0.0159 | -0.013 | -0.0107 | -0.006 | -0.022 | -0.019 | -0.0099 |
| (0.026) | (0.022) | (0.011) | (0.013) | (0.011) | (0.006) | (0.021) | (0.018) | (0.009) | |
| Index violence across states | -0.0002 | -0.0012 | -0.0006 | -0.0001 | -0.0004 | -0.0003 | -0.0001 | -0.0008 | -0.0003 |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
| Index within*index across | 0.001 | 0.0008 | 0.0004 | 0.001 | 0.0003 | 0.0002 | 0.001 | 0.0005 | 0.0003 |
| (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.000) | |
| Observations | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 | 12,090 |
Notes: Standard errors are robust and clustered by municipality. Regressions include year and municipality fixed effects. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.