Table 10

Impact of Unemployment Rate at Graduation on Welfare Receipt and Related Joint Events, Bottom Quintile—IV Specification

Dependent Variable (Measured at Age 38)	Bottom Quintile
Welfare receipt
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.019^**
	(0.007)
Mean of dependent variable	0.043
Individuals	12,800
Welfare receipt ^* No child
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.000
	(0.005)
Mean of dependent variable	0.008
Individuals	12,800
Welfare receipt ^* In partnership with child
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.003
	(0.003)
Mean of dependent variable	0.009
Individuals	12,800
Welfare receipt ^* Single mother
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.017^**
	(0.006)
Mean of dependent variable	0.026
Individuals	12,800
Welfare receipt ^* First partner had high GPA^{^a}
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	−0.003
	(0.002)
Mean of dependent variable	0.004
Individuals	9,500
Welfare receipt ^* First partner had low GPA^{^a}
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.011^**
	(0.005)
Mean of dependent variable	0.0148
Individuals	9,500
Welfare receipt ^* First partner had high earnings^{^a}
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.001
	(0.002)
Mean of dependent variable	0.004
Individuals	12,800
Welfare receipt ^* First partner had low earnings^{^a}
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.015^***
	(0.006)
Mean of dependent variable	0.028
Individuals	12,800
Track FE (instrumented)	✓
Cohort FE	✓
Municipality FE	✓
Individual characteristics	✓

Notes: Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Each model is estimated using the sample of women observed at age 38. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.
↵^a First partners with low/high GPA refer to first partners whose grades in ninth grade were below/above the median GPA. First partners with low/high earnings refer to partners whose earnings were below/above median earnings (measured when their female partner was 27).