Effects of Completing Vocational Instead of General Education on Earnings ($1,000)
| Males | Females | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Age 28(1) | Earnings Age 40(2) | Earnings Age 28(3) | Earnings Age 40(4) | |
| Conventional Treatment Effects | ||||
| ATE | 8.036*** | −8.682*** | −6.739** | −12.195*** |
| (1.393) | (1.053) | (2.066) | (2.656) | |
| ATT | 14.946*** | 3.701* | 5.131*** | 8.138*** |
| (1.581) | (1.494) | (1.187) | (1.891) | |
| ATUT | 3.254 | −17.251*** | −10.189*** | −18.108*** |
| (2.137) | (1.409) | (2.632) | (3.384) | |
| Policy‐Relevant Treatment Effects | ||||
| PRTE: p + 0.01 | 11.009*** | −6.407*** | 1.811 | 1.009 |
| (1.616) | (1.099) | (1.628) | (2.683) | |
| PRTE: Distance general +1 km | 9.343*** | −5.305*** | 0.262 | 0.141 |
| (1.182) | (1.124) | (1.213) | (1.708) | |
| PRTEs by Grade 9 math scores | ||||
| PRTE: p + 0.01, math low | 15.150*** | 0.785 | −0.266 | 0.565 |
| (2.033) | (1.139) | (1.442) | (2.070) | |
| PRTE: p + 0.01, math medium | 10.618*** | −4.237*** | 3.463* | 3.407 |
| (1.356) | (1.106) | (1.596) | (2.649) | |
| PRTE: p + 0.01, math high | 9.796*** | −11.366*** | 2.321 | 0.019 |
| (2.405) | (1.438) | (2.359) | (4.299) | |
| N | 79,070 | 79,070 | 82,362 | 82,362 |
| Order of polynomials in p | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| p‐value, observed heterogeneity | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 |
| p‐value, unobserved heterogeneity | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 |
Notes: The table presents estimation results for MTE models with polynomials in the propensity score as control functions. We report results for a polynomial of order n if the n order terms are significant (for either k0 or k) and if higher order terms are not significant. The models include all control variables: Sociodemographics, test scores, and cohort and municipality dummies. The test for observed heterogeneity is a test that β1 – β0 = 0. The test for unobserved heterogeneity is a test that the coefficients of the polynomial for k are equal to zero. The mean propensity score is 0.408 for males and 0.224 for females. The five PRTEs are effects per net individual shifted for five different policy‐related shifts in the propensity score. The first policy augments the propensity score by one percentage point for all observations. The second policy increases the distance to general schools by 1 km for everyone. This results in an average increase in the propensity score by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points for males and females, respectively. The last three sets of PRTEs are for policies that increase the propensity score by 0.01, but only for those with low, medium, and high ninth grade math scores, respectively. Bootstrapped standard errors in parentheses. + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.