Table 8

Impact of Unemployment Rate at Graduation on Family Formation—IV Specification

Dependent Variable	Full Sample (1)	Bottom Quintile (2)	Median Quintile (3)	Top Quintile (4)
Panel A: Conditions at Graduation
Still living at parents’ home at age 19
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.000	−0.030^*	0.030^*	−0.016
	(0.007)	(0.017)	(0.016)	(0.013)
Individuals	68,241	13,127	13,239	12,844
Mean of dependent variable	0.631	0.578	0.631	0.659
Age at first partnership^{^a}
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	−0.074	−0.390^**	0.081	0.050
	(0.068)	(0.172)	(0.135)	(0.112)
Individuals	57,740	10,777	11,205	11,154
Mean of dependent variable	26.825	26.040	26.973	27.163
Age at first birth
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	−0.090	−0.395^**	0.055	−0.004
	(0.064)	(0.178)	(0.140)	(0.117)
Individuals	57,103	10,757	11,060	10,926
Mean of dependent variable	26.987	25.794	27.095	27.730
Panel B: Completion of Family Formation^{^b}
Ever in a partnership
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.000	−0.006	0.000	0.010
	(0.004)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.008)
Individuals	66,336	12,800	12,854	12,433
Mean of dependent variable	0.870	0.842	0.872	0.897
Ever had a child
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	−0.002	−0.001	−0.001	0.000
	(0.005)	(0.012)	(0.011)	(0.009)
Individuals	66,336	12,800	12,854	12,433
Mean of dependent variable	0.861	0.841	0.861	0.880
Total number of children (if ever had a child)
Effect of unemployment rate at graduation	0.022^*	0.033	0.024	−0.015
	(0.012)	(0.035)	(0.027)	(0.023)
Individuals	57,033	10,746	11,043	10,916
Mean of dependent variable	2.149	2.191	2.116	2.173
Track FE (instrumented)	✓	✓	✓	✓
Cohort FE	✓	✓	✓	✓
Municipality FE	✓	✓	✓	✓
Individual characteristics	✓	✓	✓	✓

Notes: Marginal effects are presented. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered at the municipality ^* cohort (j × c) level. Each model (except the first model in Panel A) is estimated using the sample of women observed at age 38. Significance: ^*p < 0.10, ^**p < 0.05, ^***p < 0.01.
↵^a A partnership is defined as either being married or cohabitation with a partner and common child.
↵^b Completed family formation refers to family outcomes at age 38.