First‐Stage Logit Models—Decision on Completing Vocational Instead of General Upper Secondary Education, Average Marginal Derivatives
| Male (1) | Male (2) | Female (3) | Female (4) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance to vocational education (km) | −0.0004 | −0.0004 | −0.0007* | −0.0007* |
| (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | |
| Distance to general education (km) | 0.0041*** | 0.0042*** | 0.0018*** | 0.0019*** |
| (0.0004) | (0.0004) | (0.0003) | (0.0003) | |
| Cross terms: distance × math score | X | X | ||
| All control variables | X | X | X | X |
| N | 79,070 | 79,070 | 82,362 | 82,362 |
| Chi‐squared, exclusion restrictions | 281.8 | 256.8 | 94.1 | 49.7 |
| p‐value, exclusion restrictions | 6.630e‐58 | 1.745e‐56 | 4.214e‐18 | 1.644e‐11 |
| Degrees of freedom, exclusion restrictions | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Chi‐squared, cross terms | 23.2 | 45.5 | ||
| p‐value, cross terms | 1.148e‐04 | 3.066e‐09 | ||
| Degrees of freedom, cross terms | 4 | 4 |
Notes: The dependent variable is an indicator for completing a vocational instead of a general upper secondary education. Average marginal derivatives based on the logit model estimates are shown for the two distance measures. For each individual, we calculate the effect of increasing the distance by one unit (1 km), holding all control variables fixed, on the probability of completing vocational instead of general education. In Columns 2 and 4, the exclusion restrictions are the two distance measures. In Columns 1 and 3, they also include cross terms between each distance variable and two control variables, namely the math test score and an indicator variable for missing math test score. The first chi‐square test is for all exclusion restrictions. The second is for the cross terms in Columns 1 and 3 only. The models include all control variables: sociodemographics, test scores, and cohort and municipality dummies. Heteroskedasticity robust standard errors are in parentheses. + p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.