Head Start Counterfactuals
| Income Cutoff | Age Range | Program Hours | Offer Probability | Intent to treata | Takeup Eligibles (%)b | Takeup Pop. (%)c | Cost per Childd | Total Relative Coste | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ΔCog σ | ΔLFP pp | ||||||||
| Head Start baseline | |||||||||
 | 3–5 | 500 | 26% | 0.07(0.02) | −1.60(1.28) | 91 | 7 | 3611 | 1.00 |
| Reduce rationing | |||||||||
 | 3–5 | 500 | 100% | 0.16(0.04) | −5.73(1.85) | 91 | 17 | 3611 | 2.38 |
| Increase access | |||||||||
 | 3–5 | 500 | 100% | 0.14(0.04) | −5.24(1.72) | 92 | 36 | 3611 | 4.98 |
 | 3–5 | 500 | 100% | 0.13(0.04) | −4.64(1.43) | 94 | 55 | 3611 | 7.67 |
 | 3–5 | 500 | 100% | 0.13(0.04) | −1.26(0.85) | 95 | 68 | 3611 | 9.5 |
 | 3–5 | 500 | 100% | 0.13(0.04) | 0.15(0.66) | 96 | 96 | 3611 | 13.38 |
| Expand age range | |||||||||
 | 2–5 | 500 | 100% | 0.17(0.04) | −4.67(1.57) | 91 | 17 | 3611 | 3.59 |
 | 1–5 | 500 | 100% | 0.17(0.04) | −4.67(1.43) | 93 | 18 | 3611 | 5.13 |
 | 0–5 | 500 | 100% | 0.16(0.04) | −4.34(1.26) | 93 | 18 | 3611 | 7.05 |
| Full-time | |||||||||
 | 3–5 | 1000 | 26% | 0.31(0.07) | −8.41(2.55) | 89 | 17 | 7222 | 4.8 |
| Improve quality | |||||||||
 | 3–5 | 500 | 26% | 0.18(0.04) | −5.67(1.86) | 93 | 17 | ||
| Cash transferf | |||||||||
 | 3–5 | 500 | 26% | −0.02(0.02) | −13.98(3.00) | 100 | 21 | 3611 | 2.89 |
| Remove subsidies | |||||||||
 | 3–5 | 500 | 26% | 0.07(0.02) | −2.04(1.66) | 92 | 7 | 3611 | 1.01 |
↵a ΔCog σ and ΔLFP pp are the average differences across treatment and baseline in cognitive skills (in σ units) and labor force participation (in percentage points) for the ever Head Start–eligible population (intent to treat). Standard errors (in parentheses) are calculated by drawing 100 times from the asymptotic distribution of the final parameter estimates and rerunning the counterfactual simulations.
↵b “Takeup Eligibles (%)” is the percentage using Head Start among those children from income-eligible families who actually receive a (stochastic) offer of Head Start.
↵c “Takeup Pop. (%)” is the percentage using Head Start among all age children.
↵d “Cost per Child” is the average cost per child per six months, which I set to half of the yearly Head Start cost of $7,222.
↵e “Total Relative Cost” is the total simulated cost for the different Head Start program configurations relative to the total simulated cost of the baseline Head Start program.
↵f The Head Start cash transfer is a six-month transfer equal to the six-month cost per child in Head Start ($3,611).