Subsidy Counterfactuals
| Copay | Rate Ceiling | Income Cutoff | Rationing Probability | Intent to Treata | Takeup Eligibles (%)b | Income Eligible (%)c | Cost per Child ($)d | Total Relative Coste | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ΔCog a | ΔLFP pp | ||||||||
| Subsidy baselinef | |||||||||
| 7% | $3.65 | $12,000 | 30% | −4.17E-03(0.01) | 6.38(0.02) | 77 | 23 | 1816 | 1.00 |
| Vary copay | |||||||||
| 0% | $3.65 | $12,000 | 30% | −5.91E-03(8.97E-03) | 6.61(1.68) | 86 | 26 | 1676 | 1.16 |
| 5% | $3.65 | $12,000 | 30% | −5.17E-03(7.99E-03) | 5.66(1.57) | 80 | 23 | 1776 | 1.04 |
| 15% | $3.65 | $12,000 | 30% | −4.62E-03(7.46E-03) | 5.01(1.38) | 74 | 21 | 1860 | 0.93 |
| 20% | $3.65 | $12,000 | 30% | −1.95E-03(6.82E-03) | 4.16(1.22) | 66 | 19 | 1977 | 0.82 |
| Vary rate ceiling | |||||||||
| 7% | $2.00 | $12,000 | 30% | −3.27E-03(4.79E-03) | 2.86(0.90) | 72 | 20 | 1651 | 0.85 |
| 7% | $4.00 | $12,000 | 30% | −5.99E-03(1.17E-02) | 8.15(1.68) | 82 | 26 | 1983 | 1.17 |
| 7% | $10.00 | $12,000 | 30% | −7.42E-03(1.72E-02) | 10.02(2.18) | 83 | 27 | 2080 | 1.3 |
| 7% | $14.00 | $12,000 | 30% | −8.51E-03(2.00E-02) | 11.47(2.37) | 84 | 28 | 2117 | 1.35 |
| Vary income cutoff | |||||||||
| 7% | $3.65 | $5,000 | 30% | 6.41E-03(6.63E-03) | 6.05(3.03) | 85 | 23 | 1920 | 0.33 |
| 7% | $3.65 | $10,000 | 30% | −2.87E-03(7.58E-03) | 5.00(1.69) | 79 | 23 | 1834 | 0.84 |
| 7% | $3.65 | $15,000 | 30% | −4.86E-03(7.73E-03) | 5.40(1.49) | 77 | 19 | 1816 | 1.00 |
| 7% | $3.65 | $20,000 | 30% | −6.96E-03(7.39E-03) | 6.31(1.40) | 75 | 21 | 1700 | 1.54 |
| Reduce rationing | |||||||||
| 7% | $3.65 | $12,000 | 100% | − 1.40E-02(1.59E-02) | 10.77(1.89) | 78 | 72 | 1900 | 3.6 |
| Remove Head Start | |||||||||
| 7% | $3.65 | $12,000 | 30% | −0.03(0.01) | 6.93(1.82) | 78 | 23 | 1848 | 1.01 |
↵a ΔCog σ and ΔLFP pp are the average differences across treatment and baseline in cognitive skills (in σ units) and labor force participation (in percentage points) for the ever subsidy-eligible population regardless of subsidy use (intent to treat). Standard errors (in parentheses) are calculated by drawing 100 times from the asymptotic distribution of the final parameter estimates and rerunning the counterfactual simulations.
↵b “Takeup Eligibles (%)” is the percentage using subsidies among those children from income-eligible families with working mothers who actually receive a (stochastic) subsidy offer.
↵c “Income Eligible (%)” is the percentage using subsidies among income-eligible families with working mothers.
↵d “Cost per Child” is the average cost of the subsidy (net of family copayments) per child per six months.
↵e “Total Relative Cost” is the total simulated cost for the different subsidy program configurations relative to the total simulated cost of the baseline subsidy program.
↵f The subsidy policy parameters are calibrated to averages across state-level policy parameters weighted by state population size. The rate ceiling and income cutoff are discounted to 2001 dollars.