Table 3

Marginal Effects from Multinomial Logit Estimates of the Effect of Housing Price Changes on the Likelihood of Attending a Given Type of College Relative to a Nonflagship Public School

Independent VariableFlagship PublicFour-year PrivateCommunity College
Four-year home price change ($10,000)0.0019**
(0.0009)		−0.0007
(0.0018)		−0.0059*
(0.0031)
Real family income ($10,000)0.0021**
(0.0006)		0.0024
(0.0015)		−0.0074**
(0.0023)
AFQT Score0.0016**
(0.0002)		0.0024**
(0.0004)		−0.0080**
(0.0004)
Father high school diploma−0.0006
(0.0159)		0.0021
(0.0345)		0.0073
(0.0412)
Father some college−0.0122
(0.0196)		0.0347
(0.0385)		−0.0474
(0.0466)
Father BA or above0.0159
(0.0160)		0.1225**
(0.0378)		−0.1115**
(0.0466)
Mother high school diploma0.0033
(0.0186)		−0.0963*
(0.0506)		0.0372
(0.0412)
Mother some college0.0148
(0.0185)		−0.0739
(0.0467)		0.0220
(0.0421)
Mother BA or above0.0209
(0.0187)		−0.0634
(0.0484)		−0.0730*
(0.0431)
Female0.0073
(0.0059)		0.0332**
(0.0168)		−0.0425*
(0.0260)
Black0.0010
(0.0146)		0.0479**
(0.0241)		−0.2542**
(0.0358)
Hispanic−0.0161
(0.0161)		−0.0175
(0.0312)		−0.0458
(0.0373)
Other race0.0358**
(0.0137)		−0.0616*
(0.0343)		−0.0774
(0.0610)
MSA unemployment rate0.0043
(0.0034)		−0.0300**
(0.0122)		−0.0053
(0.0106)
MSA real per capita income0.0007
(0.0007)		−0.0018
(0.0021)		−0.0038
(0.0026)
Public two-year schools per 18–24 year old1.2260
(0.9551)		0.4393
(3.1572)		−2.4975
(4.0443)
Public four-year schools per 18–24 year old0.1970
(0.1270)		0.5100**
(0.2312)		−0.3641
(0.5339)
Real state aid per 18–24 year old−0.0485
(0.0631)		0.0980
(0.1425)		−0.0263
(0.2619)
BA/AA wage ratio0.0046
(0.0663)		−0.0200
(0.1701)		−0.2796
(0.2412)
BA/HS wage ratio0.0814
(0.0766)		−0.0197
(0.2116)		0.0665
(0.2778)
Number of flagships in MSA0.0110
(0.0144)		−0.0456
(0.0278)		0.0762*
(0.0429)
Number of community colleges in MSA−0.0009
(0.0009)		0.0040**
(0.0016)		0.0035*
(0.0020)
Number of public four-year colleges in MSA−0.0013
(0.0043)		−0.0219**
(0.0090)		0.0031
(0.0109)
Number of private four-year colleges in MSA0.0014**
(0.0006)		0.0006
(0.0012)		−0.0061**
(0.0016)

  • Notes: All estimates include state fixed effects and age in 1997 fixed effects and are weighed by sampling weights. All results in the table come from one multinomial logit model and include homeowners only. Housing price changes are real housing price changes over the four years prior to students turning 18 predicted by the conventional mortgage housing price index. Standard errors clustered at the MSA-level are in parentheses:

  • ↵** indicates significance at the 5 percent level and

  • ↵* indicates significance at the 10 percent level.