Table 5

Marginal Effects from Logit Estimates of the Effect of Housing Price Changes on the Likelihood of Attending Any College

Independent VariableNo AFQT
(1)		AFQT
(2)		No AFQT
(3)		AFQT
(4)
Four-year home price change ($10,000)0.0092**
(0.0030)		0.0072**
(0.0031)		  
Four-year home price change ($10,000)*
I(low income)		  0.0153**
(0.0058)		0.0104**
(0.0053)
Four-year home price change ($10,000)*
I(middle income)		  0.0085**
(0.0035)		0.0069**
(0.0033)
Four-year home price change ($10,000)*
I(high income)		  0.0012
(0.0047)		0.0011
(0.0049)
AFQT score 0.0053**
(0.0003)		 0.0049**
(0.0004)
Real family income ($10,000)0.0071**
(0.0017)		0.0052**
(0.0015)		0.0047
(0.0035)		0.0026
(0.0029)
I(middle income)  0.1143**
(0.0564)		0.0842
(0.0574)
I(high income)  −0.0161
(0.0994)		0.0668
(0.0738)
P-value(low income=middle income)  0.2090.458
P-value(low income=high income)  0.0060.012

  • Notes: All estimates include MSA and age in 1997 fixed effects as well as controls for mother’s and father’s education, gender, race, MSA-level unemployment and real income per capita, state-level public and private institutions per college age population, per-student state need-based aid, the ratio of BA to associates degree wages, the ratio of BA to high school wages, and the number of each type of college in each MSA. All estimates also are weighted by NLSY97 sampling weights and include only homeowners. Each row in the table comes from a separate logit model. Housing price changes are real housing price changes over the four years prior to students turning 18 predicted by the conventional mortgage housing price index. Low-income families are those with total income under $75,000, medium income families are those with total income between $75,000 and $125,000, and high-income families are those with total income over $125,000. Standard errors clustered at the MSA-level are in parentheses:

  • ↵** indicates significance at the 5 percent level and

  • ↵* indicates significance at the 10 percent level.