Table 6

The Effect of Housing Price Changes on Application Decisions and Admission Probabilities

 Panel A: Number of Applications
TotalFlagshipNon-flagshipFour-year PrivateApply to Two-year?
Four-year home price change ($10,000)0.010**
(0.005)		0.033**
(0.008)		0.027*
(0.014)		−0.002
(0.011)		0.004
(0.016)
AFQT score0.006**
(0.001)		0.013**
(0.002)		0.010**
(0.002)		0.015**
(0.003)		−0.032**
(0.002)
Real family income ($10,000)−0.0001
(0.004)		−0.001
(0.007)		−0.007
(0.008)		0.001
(0.009)		−0.025**
(0.012)
 Panel B: Number of Admissions
TotalFlagshipNon-flagshipFour-year Private
Four-year home price change ($10,000)0.012**
(0.005)		0.037**
(0.008)		0.027
(0.016)		−0.008
(0.014)
AFQT score0.007**
(0.001)		0.013**
(0.002)		0.012**
(0.002)		0.017**
(0.003)
Real family income ($10,000)−0.003
(0.004)		−0.005
(0.009)		−0.009
(0.009)		0.0003
(0.009)
 Panel C: Number of Admissions, Conditional on Applying
TotalFlagshipNon-flagshipFour-year Private
Four-year home price change ($10,000)0.012**
(0.005)		0.009
(0.011)		0.018*
(0.010)		−0.015
(0.017)
AFQT score0.007**
(0.001)		0.002
(0.002)		−0.00003
(0.002)		0.005**
(0.002)
Real family income ($10,000)−0.003
(0.004)		−0.005
(0.102)		−0.006
(0.007)		0.009
(0.006)

  • Notes: All estimates include MSA and age in 1997 fixed effects as well as controls for mother’s and father’s education, gender, race, home ownership status in 1997, MSA-level unemployment and real income per capita, state-level public and private institutions per college age population, per-student state need-based aid, the ratio of BA to associates degree wages, the ratio of BA to high school wages, and the number of each type of college in each MSA. All estimates also are weighted by NLSY97 sampling weights. Each column in each panel comes from a separate regression. Estimates in the first four columns come from poisson models, while estimates in the fifth column of Panel A are coefficient estimates from a logit model. Housing price changes are real housing price changes over the four years prior to students turning 18 predicted by the conventional mortgage housing price index. Standard errors clustered at the MSA-level are in parentheses:

  • ↵** indicates significance at the 5 percent level and

  • ↵* indicates significance at the 10 percent level.