Table 4

Predicted Probabilities of Quitting, Being Dismissed, and Being Promoted within One Year of Being Hired.

	White Manager	Black Manager	Hispanic Manager	Asian Manager
One-year quit probabilities
White employee	0.622	0.646	0.645	0.635
Black employee	0.647	0.656	0.646	0.635
Hispanic employee	0.621	0.621	0.596	0.609
Asian employee	0.562	0.562	0.561	0.528
One-year dismissal probabilities
White employee	0.079	0.085	0.092	0.090
Black employee	0.173	0.160	0.208	0.203
Hispanic employee	0.112	0.125	0.115	0.132
Asian employee	0.085	0.095	0.103	0.083
One-year promotion probabilities
White employee	0.047	0.062	0.049	0.054
Black employee	0.010	0.019	0.008	0.009
Hispanic employee	0.020	0.021	0.023	0.018
Asian employee	0.031	0.033	0.026	0.029

Note: Probabilities are obtained by first estimating the cumulative hazard function for white employees with white managers, and then adjusting the hazard function by the appropriate coefficients from Table 3, Columns 1b, 2b, and 3b to obtain the probabilities for the other groups. Because exits due to competing risks are treated as censored, these figures represent net or “cause-deleted” probabilities (for example, the probability of quitting in the absence of other types of exit risk).