Table 2

Estimated Effects of Teen Birth on Various Outcomes for Teen Aunts/Uncles

Control Group
All Younger Siblings (1)EARLY (2)JUST BEFORE (3)IND (4)IND+FAM (5)IND+FAM+NBHD (6)
Test scores at t = −1−3.707***−4.570**−1.517−1.701−1.345−0.612
(1.007)(1.509)(1.160)(1.149)(1.221)(1.326)
N37045100910301028947866
Mean match outcome59.53946.28243.19642.55843.02343.135
Test scores at t = 0−5.483***−5.932***−2.925*−3.166**−4.222***−4.390**
(1.065)(1.536)(1.236)(1.175)(1.218)(1.342)
N29,886862878892809755
Mean match outcome60.02845.35742.67741.99743.55245.278
Test scores, with age and individual FE−4.287***−2.495*−3.155**−2.407*−2.481*−3.710***
(0.915)(1.048)(1.040)(1.069)(1.077)(1.101)
Observations386,7136,6147,0847,0966,2765,669
N85,8601,0951,1681,1771,029938
Mean match outcome60.23847.03243.49442.96543.85145.099
Repeats grade in t = 0 or later−4.287***3.5171.1712.4415.6292.482
(0.915)(3.556)(3.511)(3.478)(3.684)(3.803)
N86,2651,1771,2161,2251,084990
Mean match outcome19.96629.42331.73130.67327.09728.899
Drops out in t = 0 or later8.074***9.794**7.172*7.682**6.618*5.350+
(1.925)(3.008)(2.919)(2.928)(3.008)(3.171)
N48,7931,1771,21612,251,084990
Mean match outcome9.83913.46215.38515.09615.48413.959
Juvenile justice in t = 0 or later7.694***5.036*6.027*6.402*5.143*5.986*
(1.841)(2.536)(2.494)(2.515)(2.603)(2.823)
N48,7931,1771,2161,2251,084990
Mean match outcome3.0868.0777.3087.2127.8496.870
Ever attends any college−13.048***−9.655*−6.761−4.267−5.360−9.679+
(3.369)(4.714)(4.501)(4.542)(4.846)(5.085)
N36,612815840826740664
Mean match outcome66.13059.65155.66051.93956.62159.906
Obtains any degree or certificate−4.526+−4.546−3.511−2.940−5.536−3.526
(2.731)(3.980)(3.884)(3.762)(4.049)(4.087)
N36,612815840826740664
Mean match outcome38.36825.87123.85422.85326.18025.314
Obtains a four-year degree−5.334*−5.192−3.806−3.961−5.252−3.283
(2.111)(3.276)(3.153)(3.086)(3.328)(3.463)
N36,612815840826740664
Mean match outcome28.14217.02414.69014.68117.04715.723
First-obs. controlsYYYYYY
First-obs. test scoreYYNNNN
Test score at t = −2NNYYYY
Test scores t = −4 to −2NNNYYY
Fam. Scores t = −4 to −2NNNNYY
Match from neighborsNNNNNY
  • Notes: Robust standard errors clustered by family ID. Analyses include all controls from Table 1. Column 1 includes all children from non-teen-childbearing families as controls, with control students’ t = 0 set at their seventh observation (mean age = 13.6). Column 2 includes matches to younger siblings from non-teen-childbearing families to the teen aunts/uncles based on the first-observed characteristics, including first-observed test scores. Column 3 replaces first-observed test scores with scores from two years before birth. Column 4 replaces one observed test score with three-year test score fiends (t = −2, −3, and −4). Column 5 adds three-year family average test score trends. Column 6 adds the neighborhood requirement. Scores at t = 0, repeats grade, drops out, juvenile justice, and college-going outcomes include one weighted observation from the siblings and their controls. Column 1 test scores at t = 0 include multiple observations per individual control. Fixed-effects models include all available observations from t = −5 to t = +2 from the siblings and their noted controls, excluding t = −1. Test scores reported as nationally norm-referenced percentiles (1–100). The mean for the preferred IND+FAM control group scores at the percentile 43.6 in t = 0, with 27.1 percent repeating a grade in any year following the birth, 15.5 percent dropping out following the birth, 7.8 percent juvenile justice system exposure following the birth, 56.6 percent college attendance, 26.2 percent obtaining any degree or certificate, and 17.0 percent obtaining a four-year degree.