Table 3

Promise Effects on Enrollment

Method	OLS	RF	IV
	(1)	(2)	(3)
Panel A: Enrollment within Six Months
(Mean of DV \| After =0, Elig. =1) =0.612
After × Eligible	0.083^**	0.049	0.071
	[0.042]	[0.039]	[0.057]
R²	0.150	0.150	0.150
p-value of difference between (1) and (3)			0.853
Panel B: Enrollment within 12 Months
(Mean of DV \| After =0, Elig. =1) =0.673
After × Eligible	0.059	0.016	0.023
	[0.041]	[0.038]	[0.055]
_R2	0.164	0.162	0.162
p-value of difference between (1) and (3)			0.533
Panel C: Enrollment at Four-Year within Six Months
(Mean of DV \| After =0, Elig. =1) =0.402
After × Eligible	0.094^**	0.049	0.071
	[0.038]	[0.037]	[0.053]
R²	0.184	0.182	0.182
p-value of difference between (1) and (3)			0.745
Panel D: Enrollment at Four-Year within 12 Months
(Mean of DV \| After = 0, Elig. =1) = 0.411
After × Eligible	0.089^**	0.042	0.060
	[0.039]	[0.037]	[0.054]
R²	0.187	0.185	0.185
p-value of difference between (1) and (3)			0.695

↵Notes: Standard errors robust to heteroskedasticity are in brackets. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. Outcome timing is since high school graduation. Regressions include dummies for after the Promise, individual (pseudo-)eligibility, sex, race/ethnicity, free/reduced-price lunch status, and high school of graduation- by-graduation year. In Column 1, prior to 2006, eligibility is based on Promise rules had the Promise been in effect (rules-based eligibility). After 2006, eligibility is taken from administrative records from the Promise (observed eligibility). Column 2 always uses rules-based eligibility. Column 3 rescales the Column 2 coefficient by the first-stage coefficient. This first-stage coefficient is obtained, for the post-Promise period, by regressing observed eligibility on rules-based eligibility (and the same covariates as above) and is equal to 0.694; see Appendix Table A.5, Column 1. The first-stage F-test statistic is 1,266. The mean of the dependent variable is for eligible population in the pre-Promise period. The p-values are from a Hausman test of equality of the OLS and IV estimate. Sample size is 5,415.