Model Fit: Observed vs. Predicted Migration Probabilities
| 2004–2008 | 2009–2013 | All | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t–1 Employment Status | Data | Model | Data | Model | Data | Model | ||
| Panel A: Migration Probabilities by Calendar Time and t–1 Employment Status | ||||||||
| Employed | 1.30% | 1.33% | 1.28% | 1.24% | 1.29% | 1.29% | ||
| Unemployed | 1.21% | 1.25% | 1.15% | 1.10% | 1.19% | 1.19% | ||
| Out of labor force | 1.88% | 1.73% | 1.52% | 1.66% | 1.69% | 1.70% | ||
| Overall | 1.14% | 1.27% | 1.38% | 1.22% | 1.25% | 1.25% | ||
| Employed | Unemployed | Out of LF | All | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age Range | Data | Model | Data | Model | Data | Model | Data | Model |
| Panel B: Migration Probabilities by Age and t–1 Employment Status | ||||||||
| 18–25 | 2.31% | 2.11% | 2.54% | 3.62% | 3.37% | 3.31% | 2.52% | 2.84% |
| 26–35 | 1.90% | 1.65% | 2.31% | 2.32% | 1.97% | 2.13% | 2.00% | 1.86% |
| 36–45 | 1.00% | 1.20% | 1.57% | 1.42% | 1.23% | 1.30% | 1.13% | 1.25% |
| 46–55 | 0.80% | 0.82% | 1.09% | 0.85% | 0.88% | 0.84% | 0.86% | 0.83% |
| Employed | Unemployed | Out of LF | All | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance (Miles) | Data | Model | Data | Model | Data | Model | Data | Model |
| Panel C: Migration Probabilities by Distance and t–1 Employment Status | ||||||||
| 0–500 | 0.72% | 0.70% | 0.68% | 0.65% | 0.92% | 0.94% | 0.72% | 0.70% |
| 501–1,000 | 0.31% | 0.35% | 0.29% | 0.33% | 0.41% | 0.45% | 0.31% | 0.35% |
| 1,001–1,500 | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.17% | 0.13% | 0.13% |
| 1,501–2,000 | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.05% |
| 2,001+ | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.05% |
Notes: All numbers in this table correspond to migration probabilities (multiplied by 100 and expressed as percentages). Data probabilities consist of conditional means of an indicator for migration. Model probabilities consist of conditional means of the predicted probability of leaving the current location.