Model Fit: Employment Transitions by Migration Status
| Period t | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data | Model | |||||
| Period t–1 | E | U | N | E | U | N |
| Panel A: Employment Transitions Conditional on Migrating | ||||||
| Employed (E) | 70.98% | 22.69% | 6.33% | 71.99% | 22.26% | 5.75% |
| Unemployed (U) | 41.40% | 46.50% | 12.10% | 45.06% | 44.77% | 10.17% |
| Out of labor force (N) | 16.52% | 17.39% | 66.09% | 13.88% | 12.58% | 73.54% |
| Panel B: Employment Transitions Conditional On Staying | ||||||
| Employed (E) | 86.92% | 9.86% | 3.23% | 86.45% | 9.83% | 3.71% |
| Unemployed (U) | 36.33% | 49.75% | 13.93% | 38.09% | 49.60% | 12.31% |
| Out of labor force (N) | 10.81% | 10.41% | 78.78% | 10.56% | 12.22% | 77.21% |
Notes: All numbers in this table correspond to employment transition probabilities (multiplied by 100 and expressed as percentages). Data probabilities consist of conditional means of employment transition by migration status. Model probabilities consist of conditional means (by employment status) of the predicted conditional probability of making an employment transition (conditional on leaving or staying).