QWI Wage and Mobility Analysis from the Hawaii Natural Experiment—Triple Difference Results
| Log Overall Average Monthly Earnings | Log Hires Average Monthly Earnings | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| Panel A: QWI Wage Variables | ||||||||
| Post × HI × Tech | 0.00964*** | 0.00712** | 0.0441*** | 0.0424*** | ||||
| (0.00282) | (0.00270) | (0.00457) | (0.00361) | |||||
| SR_Post × HI × Tech | 0.0121*** | 0.0100*** | 0.0558*** | 0.0548*** | ||||
| (0.00276) | (0.00238) | (0.00479) | (0.00352) | |||||
| LR_Post × HI × Tech | 0.00451 | 0.00104 | 0.0198*** | 0.0166*** | ||||
| (0.00653) | (0.00546) | (0.00625) | (0.00593) | |||||
| Observations | 166,529 | 166,529 | 208,728 | 208,728 | 164,140 | 164,140 | 205,828 | 205,828 |
| R-squared | 0.992 | 0.992 | 0.993 | 0.993 | 0.975 | 0.975 | 0.975 | 0.975 |
| Panel B: QWI Mobility Variables | ||||||||
| Post × HI × Tech | 0.0104*** | 0.00979*** | 0.0104*** | 0.00960*** | ||||
| (0.00180) | (0.00130) | (0.00108) | (0.000912) | |||||
| SR_Post × HI × Tech | 0.0114*** | 0.0112*** | 0.0129*** | 0.0126*** | ||||
| (0.00177) | (0.00125) | (0.000840) | (0.000644) | |||||
| LR_Post × HI × Tech | 0.00836*** | 0.00676*** | 0.00533** | 0.00337* | ||||
| (0.00214) | (0.00173) | (0.00198) | (0.00174) | |||||
| Observations | 163,965 | 163,965 | 205,608 | 205,608 | 166,450 | 166,450 | 208,632 | 208,632 |
| R-squared | 0.945 | 0.945 | 0.945 | 0.945 | 0.902 | 0.902 | 0.899 | 0.899 |
| Sample | 40 States | 40 States | All | All | 40 States | 40 States | All | All |
| Ind × Year–Qtr FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| State × Ind FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| State × Year–Qtr FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Notes:
↵* p < 0.1,
↵** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01.
Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the state level. Data are from the QWI, 2013Q2–2017Q1. “Tech”is defined as QWI four-digit industry classifications that cover software design, development, and services, to concord with the definition of “technology business” in the Hawaii statute. In Panel A, the dependent variable in Columns 1–4 is the Overall Separation Rate defined as All Separations (that is, Sep) divided by Employment in the Reference Quarter (that is, EmpTotal), and in Columns 5–8 is the Beginning-of-Quarter separation rate (that is, SepBegR). In Panel B, the dependent variable in Columns 1–4 is the log of overall Average Monthly Earnings (Full Quarter Employment) (that is, log EarnS), and in Columns 5–8 is the log of the Average Monthly Earnings of All Hires into Full Quarter Employment (that is, log EamHirAS). “Post” is defined as July 2015 and afterwards; SR_Post is 2015Q3–2016Q2, and LR_Postis 2016Q3–2017Q1. Columns 1–2 and 5–6 are limited to the 40 states closest to Hawaii in the CNC score in absolute terms, while other columns include all states. All specifications use Beginning-of-Quarter Employment (Emp) as (analytical) weights. Number of observations adjusts for weights and singleton cells, that is, drops zero weights and singleton-cells (when fixed effects are added). The mean (SD) for tech industries in the pre-July 2015 of Log Overall Average Monthly Earnings period is 8.788 (0.084) and of Log Hires Average Monthly Earnings is 8.640 (0.140). The mean (SD) of the Overall Separation Rate for Tech industries in the pre-July 2015 period is 0.091 (0.020) and for Beginning-of-Quarter Separation Rate is 0.085 (0.025).