Estimated Effects of the Universal Child Benefit on Births by Economic Conditions in the Province
Economic Conditions Indicator: | Income Level | Economic Crisis Intensity | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent Variable: | Log(Births) (1) | Birth Rate (2) | Log(Births) (3) | Birth Rate (4) |
Main effects: | ||||
Transition into child benefit (12/2007–03/2008) | 0.0387*** (0.0066) | 0.1579** (0.0709) | 0.0380*** (0.0075) | 0.1523* (0.0763) |
Child benefit period (04/2008–09/2010) | 0.0247*** (0.0062) | 0.2615*** (0.0791) | 0.0325*** (0.0057) | 0.2900*** (0.0625) |
Transition out of child benefit (10/2010–12/2010) | 0.0279*** (0.0102) | 0.3430*** (0.1241) | 0.0231** (0.0104) | 0.2201* (0.1236) |
Post-child-benefit period (01/2011–12/2017) | −0.0419*** (0.0128) | −0.4972*** (0.1508) | −0.0265** (0.0115) | −0.3024** (0.1342) |
Interaction with economic indicators: | ||||
Transition into child benefit (12/2007–03/2008) | −0.0073 (0.0143) | −0.0795 (0.1271) | −0.0055 (0.0143) | −0.0625 (0.1271) |
Child benefit period (04/2008–09/2010) | 0.0067 (0.0168) | −0.0916 (0.1645) | −0.0125 (0.0167) | −0.1522 (0.1614) |
Transition out of child benefit (10/2010–12/2010) | 0.0389** (0.0155) | 0.3688* (0.2077) | 0.0449*** (0.0147) | 0.6107*** (0.1934) |
Post-child-benefit period (01/2011–12/2017) | −0.0298 (0.0190) | −0.4155* (0.2229) | −0.0627*** (0.0174) | −0.8061*** (0.2007) |
Employment rate, male | 0.4104*** (0.1043) | 1.9352* (1.1083) | 0.4256*** (0.1006) | 2.0316* (1.0885) |
Unemployment rate, male | −0.1791** (0.0722) | −3.9284*** (0.7754) | −0.1416** (0.0665) | −3.7983*** (0.7496) |
Province-specific month | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Province-specific month2 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Province-specific month3 | Yes | Yes | ||
Province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Calendar month FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 10,700 | 10,700 | 10,700 | 10,700 |
R-squared | 0.9945 | 0.8056 | 0.9945 | 0.8059 |
Average Y in 07/2006–06/2007 better off | 25.24 | 11.88 | 30.81 | 12.68 |
Average Y in 07/2006–06/2007 worse off | 26.50 | 13.25 | 20.93 | 12.45 |
Average Y in 05/2009–04/2010 better off | 25.92 | 12.41 | 31.34 | 13.01 |
Average Y in 05/2009–04/2010 worse off | 26.13 | 13.05 | 20.71 | 12.46 |
Notes: OLS regressions. Monthly data on the 50 Spanish provinces between 01/2000 and 12/2017. Dependent variables are logarithm of number of births per day in each calendar month among women aged 15–44 years (Columns 1 and 3) and the corresponding birth rate, expressed per 100,000 women aged 15–44 years (Columns 2 and 4). Columns 1–2 show interaction terms with a dummy variable that takes a value of one for the 25 provinces with lower GDP per capita in 2007 and 2010, and zero otherwise. The dummy variable is also included in the model but not shown. Columns 3–4 show interaction terms with a dummy variable that takes a value of one for the 25 provinces more affected by the economic crisis, and zero otherwise. Births in 12/2010 and 01/2011 are set to missing. (Un)employment rates are included with a lag of three quarters. Standard errors are clustered at the province level.