Table 7

Estimated Effects of the Universal Child Benefit on Age-Specific Birth Rates

Dependent Variable: Birth Rate15–19
(1)
20–24
(2)
25–29
(3)
30–34
(4)
35–39
(5)
40–44
(6)
Transition into child benefit (12/2007–03/2008)0.0923
(0.0752)
0.5844***
(0.1172)
0.3777**
(0.1691)
−0.2674
(0.2174)
0.0484
(0.1429)
0.0340
(0.0607)
Child benefit period (04/2008–09/2010)−0.1093
(0.0728)
0.2444*
(0.1302)
0.0772
(0.1463)
0.3136
(0.1960)
0.5600***
(0.1540)
0.0089
(0.0589)
Transition out of child benefit (10/2010–12/2010)−0.1048
(0.1287)
0.2011
(0.1330)
0.4346*
(0.2381)
1.0995***
(0.2462)
1.0096***
(0.2324)
0.1481*
(0.0863)
Post-child-benefit period (01/2011–12/2017)−0.3128***
(0.1165)
−1.1820***
(0.1657)
−1.1468***
(0.2465)
−0.8440***
(0.2473)
−0.6173***
(0.1991)
−0.0525
(0.0842)
Male (un)employment ratesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Province-specific monthYesYesYesYesYesYes
Province-specific month2YesYesYesYesYesYes
Province-specific month3YesYesYesYesYes
Province FEYesYesYesYesYesYes
Calendar month FEYesYesYesYesYesYes
Observations10,70010,70010,70010,70010,70010,700
R-squared0.55830.74940.74720.62500.68500.5575
Average Y in 07/2006–06/20073.048.4716.8225.6414.232.49
Average Y in 05/2009–04/20102.938.8016.4724.7915.512.93
  • Notes: OLS regressions. Monthly data on the 50 Spanish provinces between 01/2000 and 12/2017. Dependent variable is the daily birth rate among women in a given age group, expressed per 100,000 women in that age group, in each calendar month. Births in 12/2010 and 01/2011 are set to missing. (Un)employment rates are included with a lag of three quarters. Standard errors are clustered at the province level.