Estimated Effects of the Universal Child Benefit on Age-Specific Birth Rates
Dependent Variable: Birth Rate | 15–19 (1) | 20–24 (2) | 25–29 (3) | 30–34 (4) | 35–39 (5) | 40–44 (6) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Transition into child benefit (12/2007–03/2008) | 0.0923 (0.0752) | 0.5844*** (0.1172) | 0.3777** (0.1691) | −0.2674 (0.2174) | 0.0484 (0.1429) | 0.0340 (0.0607) |
Child benefit period (04/2008–09/2010) | −0.1093 (0.0728) | 0.2444* (0.1302) | 0.0772 (0.1463) | 0.3136 (0.1960) | 0.5600*** (0.1540) | 0.0089 (0.0589) |
Transition out of child benefit (10/2010–12/2010) | −0.1048 (0.1287) | 0.2011 (0.1330) | 0.4346* (0.2381) | 1.0995*** (0.2462) | 1.0096*** (0.2324) | 0.1481* (0.0863) |
Post-child-benefit period (01/2011–12/2017) | −0.3128*** (0.1165) | −1.1820*** (0.1657) | −1.1468*** (0.2465) | −0.8440*** (0.2473) | −0.6173*** (0.1991) | −0.0525 (0.0842) |
Male (un)employment rates | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Province-specific month | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Province-specific month2 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Province-specific month3 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Calendar month FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 10,700 | 10,700 | 10,700 | 10,700 | 10,700 | 10,700 |
R-squared | 0.5583 | 0.7494 | 0.7472 | 0.6250 | 0.6850 | 0.5575 |
Average Y in 07/2006–06/2007 | 3.04 | 8.47 | 16.82 | 25.64 | 14.23 | 2.49 |
Average Y in 05/2009–04/2010 | 2.93 | 8.80 | 16.47 | 24.79 | 15.51 | 2.93 |
Notes: OLS regressions. Monthly data on the 50 Spanish provinces between 01/2000 and 12/2017. Dependent variable is the daily birth rate among women in a given age group, expressed per 100,000 women in that age group, in each calendar month. Births in 12/2010 and 01/2011 are set to missing. (Un)employment rates are included with a lag of three quarters. Standard errors are clustered at the province level.