Table 1

Estimated Effects of the Universal Child Benefit on Births

Log(Births)
(1)
Log(Births)
(2)
Donut Log(Births)
(3)
Donut Log(Births)
(4)
Donut Birth Rate
(5)
Donut Births
(6)
Transition into child benefit (12/2007–03/2008)0.0356***
(0.0078)
0.0347***
(0.0075)
0.0351***
(0.0075)
0.0037
(0.0071)
0.1187*
(0.0701)
0.6744***
(0.1834)
Child benefit period (04/2008–09/2010)0.0189*
(0.0101)
0.0276***
(0.0077)
0.0277***
(0.0077)
0.0172**
(0.0078)
0.2154***
(0.0759)
0.5186***
(0.1827)
Transition out of child benefit (10/2010–12/2010)0.0538***
(0.0094)
0.0629***
(0.0062)
0.0471***
(0.0075)
0.0415***
(0.0073)
0.5273***
(0.0912)
1.1295***
(0.2371)
Post-child-benefit period (01/2011–12/2017)−0.0793***
(0.0070)
−0.0740***
(0.0063)
−0.0569***
(0.0079)
−0.0495***
(0.0072)
−0.7049***
(0.0940)
−1.5875***
(0.3453)
Employment rate, male0.5500*
(0.3067)
0.4191***
(0.1009)
0.4205***
(0.1011)
0.0654
(0.0921)
1.9841*
(1.0959)
13.5033***
(4.7444)
Unemployment rate, male0.0671
(0.2143)
−0.1628**
(0.0679)
−0.1675**
(0.0677)
−0.2875***
(0.0630)
−3.8812***
(0.7645)
−4.0412**
(1.9271)
Log(women aged 15–44)1.4848***
(0.1310)
Month0.0194***
(0.0013)
Month squared−0.0000***
(0.0000)
Province-specific monthYesYesYesYesYes
Province-specific month2YesYesYesYesYes
Province-specific month3YesYes
Province FEYesYesYesYesYesYes
Calendar month FEYesYesYesYesYesYes
Observations10,80010,80010,70010,70010,70010,700
R-squared0.99200.99450.99440.99470.80540.9964
Average Y in 07/2006–06/200725.8712.5625.87
Average Y in 05/2009–04/201026.0312.7326.03
  • Notes: OLS regressions. Monthly data on the 50 Spanish provinces between 01/2000 and 12/2017. Dependent variables are logarithm of number of births per day in each calendar month among women aged 15–44 years (Columns 1–4); the corresponding birth rate, expressed per 100,000 women aged 15–44 years (Column 5); and number of births per day in each calendar month among women aged 15–44 years (Column 6). In Columns 3–6, births in 12/2010 and 01/2011 are set to missing. Column 5 is our preferred specification. (Un)employment rates are included with a lag of three quarters. Standard errors are clustered at the province level.