Log(Births) (1) | Log(Births) (2) | Donut Log(Births) (3) | Donut Log(Births) (4) | Donut Birth Rate (5) | Donut Births (6) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Transition into child benefit (12/2007–03/2008) | 0.0356*** (0.0078) | 0.0347*** (0.0075) | 0.0351*** (0.0075) | 0.0037 (0.0071) | 0.1187* (0.0701) | 0.6744*** (0.1834) |
Child benefit period (04/2008–09/2010) | 0.0189* (0.0101) | 0.0276*** (0.0077) | 0.0277*** (0.0077) | 0.0172** (0.0078) | 0.2154*** (0.0759) | 0.5186*** (0.1827) |
Transition out of child benefit (10/2010–12/2010) | 0.0538*** (0.0094) | 0.0629*** (0.0062) | 0.0471*** (0.0075) | 0.0415*** (0.0073) | 0.5273*** (0.0912) | 1.1295*** (0.2371) |
Post-child-benefit period (01/2011–12/2017) | −0.0793*** (0.0070) | −0.0740*** (0.0063) | −0.0569*** (0.0079) | −0.0495*** (0.0072) | −0.7049*** (0.0940) | −1.5875*** (0.3453) |
Employment rate, male | 0.5500* (0.3067) | 0.4191*** (0.1009) | 0.4205*** (0.1011) | 0.0654 (0.0921) | 1.9841* (1.0959) | 13.5033*** (4.7444) |
Unemployment rate, male | 0.0671 (0.2143) | −0.1628** (0.0679) | −0.1675** (0.0677) | −0.2875*** (0.0630) | −3.8812*** (0.7645) | −4.0412** (1.9271) |
Log(women aged 15–44) | 1.4848*** (0.1310) | |||||
Month | 0.0194*** (0.0013) | |||||
Month squared | −0.0000*** (0.0000) | |||||
Province-specific month | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Province-specific month2 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Province-specific month3 | Yes | Yes | ||||
Province FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Calendar month FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 10,800 | 10,800 | 10,700 | 10,700 | 10,700 | 10,700 |
R-squared | 0.9920 | 0.9945 | 0.9944 | 0.9947 | 0.8054 | 0.9964 |
Average Y in 07/2006–06/2007 | 25.87 | 12.56 | 25.87 | |||
Average Y in 05/2009–04/2010 | 26.03 | 12.73 | 26.03 |
Notes: OLS regressions. Monthly data on the 50 Spanish provinces between 01/2000 and 12/2017. Dependent variables are logarithm of number of births per day in each calendar month among women aged 15–44 years (Columns 1–4); the corresponding birth rate, expressed per 100,000 women aged 15–44 years (Column 5); and number of births per day in each calendar month among women aged 15–44 years (Column 6). In Columns 3–6, births in 12/2010 and 01/2011 are set to missing. Column 5 is our preferred specification. (Un)employment rates are included with a lag of three quarters. Standard errors are clustered at the province level.