Table 8

State EITCs and Outcome Differentials for Female Offenders by Returning Crime, Race and Ethnicity, and Education

1 Year3 Year
Violent
(1)
Property
(2)
Drug
(3)
Other
(4)
Violent
(5)
Property
(6)
Drug
(7)
Other
(8)
State EITC0.0008
(0.0013)
−0.0010
(0.0044)
0.0034*
(0.0019)
−0.0029*
(0.0015)
−0.0007
(0.0015)
−0.0104*
(0.0058)
−0.0019
(0.0039)
−0.0073***
(0.0019)
Wild bootstrap pa0.5900.8250.1290.1800.7470.1880.7290.048
Mean recid. rate0.0130.0510.0470.0310.0250.1050.0980.055
Observations680,826680,826680,826680,826551,211551,211551,211551,211
Education
<HS
(9)
HS
(10)
>HS
(11)
<HS
(12)
HS
(13)
>HS
(14)
State EITC0.0002
(0.0072)
−0.0025
(0.0078)
−0.0277**
(0.0107)
−0.0237**
(0.0109)
−0.0228**
(0.0105)
−0.0355***
(0.0120)
Wild bootstrap pa0.9870.7940.0550.1970.1510.045
Mean recid. rate0.1510.1370.1150.3030.2750.241
Observations247,801211,70148,929211,210168,84038,925
Race/Ethnicity
Black
(15)
White
(16)
Hispanic
(17)
Black
(18)
White
(19)
Hispanic
(20)
State EITC0.0014
(0.0071)
−0.0002
(0.0076)
0.0137
(0.0227)
−0.0101
(0.0079)
−0.0268***
(0.0095)
−0.0147
(0.0290)
Wild bootstrap pa0.8760.9770.6790.3960.0920.712
Mean recid. rate0.1350.1410.1490.2840.2780.289
Observations219,083380,13053,340187,962299,33341,998
  • Notes: Only female offenders are included in this table. In Columns 1–8 the dependent variable is return to prison for a certain crime type within one or three years of release (as indicated by column headers). Remaining columns the dependent variable is return to prison within one or three years of release (as indicated in column headers). Columns 9–20 are subsample results based on either education level or race/ethnicity. >HS means any college, not necessarily a college degree. State EITC is an indicator for the existence of a state top-up and is measured in the state and month the offender was released. Mean recidivism rates are the mean of the dependent variable for the respective column. Robust standard errors clustered at the state level are shown in parentheses (43 clusters). p-values from 1,000 wild-cluster bootstrap iterations are shown as well, as suggested by Cameron et al. (2008) when the number of clusters is small.

  • * p < 0.10,

  • ** p < 0.05,

  • *** p < 0.01 (based on cluster-robust standard errors).

  • a To address the smaller number of treated clusters for EITC estimates, the EITC wild boostrap errors are estimated at the state–year subcluster (MacKinnon and Webb 2018; Roodman et al. 2019). Results for men can be found in Online Appendix Table G.4.