State EITC and Minimum Wage Effects on Recidivism Rates by Gender
| Female | Male | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year (1) | 3 Year (2) | 1 Year (3) | 3 Year (4) | |
| Panel A: Any State EITC | ||||
| State EITC | 0.0003 (0.0055) | −0.0203*** (0.0064) | 0.0070 (0.0055) | −0.0017 (0.0071) |
| Min. wage | −0.0105* (0.0057) | −0.0161** (0.0065) | −0.0091** (0.0039) | −0.0149*** (0.0044) |
| Min. wage coeff. wild bootstrap p | 0.131 | 0.047 | 0.062 | 0.011 |
| EITC coeff. wild bootstrap pa | 0.957 | 0.054 | 0.282 | 0.842 |
| Panel B: State EITC Percent | ||||
| State EITC percent | −0.0006 (0.0010) | −0.0017 (0.0011) | 0.0008 (0.0007) | −0.0002 (0.0008) |
| Min. wage | −0.0105* (0.0056) | −0.0160** (0.0064) | −0.0091** (0.0039) | −0.0149*** (0.0044) |
| Min. wage coeff. wild bootstrap p | 0.117 | 0.047 | 0.061 | 0.004 |
| EITC coeff. wild bootstrap pa | 0.650 | 0.261 | 0.350 | 0.843 |
| Mean recid. rate | 0.142 | 0.284 | 0.177 | 0.355 |
| Observations | 680,826 | 551,211 | 5,105,236 | 4,198,073 |
Notes: The dependent variable is return to prison in the same state within one or three years of release (indicated in the column heading). Minimum wage is measured in nominal dollars. State EITC is an indicator for the existence of a state top-up. State EITC percent is the percent of the federal EITC available to those in that state measured in percentage points. All are measured in the state and month the offender was released. All specifications include state and year fixed effects, as well as the individual and time-varying state-level controls outlined in Section III. Robust standard errors clustered at the state level are shown in parentheses (43 clusters). p-values from 1,000 wild-cluster bootstrap iterations are shown for the main minimum wage coefficient and the EITC coefficients, as suggested by Cameron et al. (2008) when the number of clusters is small.
↵* p <0.10,
↵** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01.
↵a To address the smaller number of treated clusters for EITC estimates, the EITC wild boostrap errors are estimated at the state–year subcluster (MacKinnon and Webb 2018; Roodman et al. 2019).