Table 7

Outcome Differentials by Returning Crime, Race and Ethnicity, and Education

1 Year3 Year
Violent
(1)
Property
(2)
Drug
(3)
Other
(4)
Violent
(5)
Property
(6)
Drug
(7)
Other
(8)
Min. wage−0.0004
(0.0011)
−0.0049***
(0.0012)
−0.0032**
(0.0015)
−0.0007
(0.0013)
−0.0009
(0.0015)
−0.0064***
(0.0017)
−0.0057***
(0.0018)
−0.0019
(0.0015)
Wild bootstrap p0.7840.0020.0750.6160.6130.0030.0270.227
Mean recid. rate0.0320.0570.0470.0360.0620.1130.1030.069
Observations5,786,0625,786,0625,786,0625,786,0624,749,2844,749,2844,749,2844,749,284
Education
<HS
(9)
HS
(10)
>HS
(11)
<HS
(12)
HS
(13)
>HS
(14)
Min. wage−0.0150***
(0.0049)
−0.0094*
(0.0054)
−0.0104
(0.0079)
−0.0210***
(0.0054)
−0.0156**
(0.0061)
−0.0141
(0.0088)
Observations2,245,9041,824,652317,6091,907,9471,472,633258,196
Wild bootstrap p0.0320.1840.3170.0050.0480.228
Mean recid. rate0.1790.1780.1480.3630.3490.299
Race/Ethnicity
Black
(15)
White
(16)
Hispanic
(17)
Black
(18)
White
(19)
Hispanic
(20)
Min. wage−0.0114**
(0.0051)
−0.0080*
(0.0041)
−0.0050
(0.0046)
−0.0151**
(0.0060)
−0.0122**
(0.0048)
−0.0117**
(0.0055)
Observations2,457,7942,471,327696,3382,062,4321,998,305561,803
Wild bootstrap p0.0590.0970.4410.0340.0330.200
Mean recid. rate0.1780.1680.1560.3700.3310.303
  • Notes: In Columns 1–8 the dependent variable is return to prison for a certain crime type within one or three years of release (as indicated by column headers). Columns 9–20 are one- and three-year rates of returning to prison within subsamples based on either education level or race/ethnicity. >HS means any college, not necessarily a college degree. Minimum wage is measured in nominal dollars in the state and month the offender was released. Mean recidivism rates are the mean of the dependent variable for the respective column. All specifications include state and year fixed effects, as well as the individual and time-varying state-level controls outlined in Section III. State EITC policy is included as a dummy variable but its coefficient is not shown. Robust standard errors clustered at the state level are shown in parentheses (43 clusters). p-values from 1,000 wild-cluster bootstrap iterations are shown for the main minimum wage coefficient, as suggested by Cameron et al. (2008) in cases with a small number of clusters, typically ≤30 (our analysis is near but not below this threshold). Outcome heterogeneity by gender is examined in Table 6.

  • * p < 0.10,

  • ** p < 0.05,

  • *** p < 0.01 (based on cluster-robust standard errors).