Determinants of False Negatives, Probit Average Derivatives, Households with Income Less Than Twice the Poverty Line
| ACS | CPS | SIPP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | Maryland | Illinois | Maryland | IL&MD | ||
| Single, no children | –0.0862 (0.0716) | 0.0437 (0.0877) | –0.1312* (0.0779) | 0.0558 (0.1755) | –0.1644** (0.0662) | |
| Single, with children | –0.0802 (0.0539) | 0.1203 (0.0753) | –0.0227 (0.0620) | –0.0323 (0.1203) | –0.1426*** (0.0481) | |
| Multiple adults, no children | –0.1036 (0.0857) | –0.0135 (0.1067) | –0.0245 (0.0739) | 0.0668 (0.1416) | 0.0323 (0.0843) | |
| Number of members 18 or older | –0.0248 (0.0341) | 0.0405 (0.0363) | 0.0391 (0.0371) | 0.0370 (0.0794) | 0.0159 (0.0210) | |
| Number of members under 18 | –0.0306 (0.0264) | –0.0185 (0.0329) | –0.0230 (0.0224) | –0.0968 (0.0616) | –0.0361* (0.0219) | |
| Number of members PIKed | 0.0308 (0.0268) | 0.0358 (0.0333) | –0.0171 (0.0194) | 0.0484 (0.0433) | –0.0060 (0.0205) | |
| Age ≥50 | 0.1514*** (0.0513) | 0.1319** (0.0663) | 0.0881* (0.0525) | –0.1418* (0.0832) | –0.0044 (0.0347) | |
| Male | 0.0877* (0.0356) | –0.0335 (0.0483) | –0.0603 (0.0446) | 0.0195 (0.0858) | –0.0798** (0.0359) | |
| Less than high school | 0.0688 (0.0431) | 0.0659 (0.0589) | –0.0695 (0.0479) | –0.0620 (0.1111) | –0.1572*** (0.0517) | |
| High school graduate | –0.0001 (0.0425) | 0.1147** (0.0576) | –0.0293 (0.0463) | –0.0002 (0.0926) | 0.0425 (0.0327) | |
| College graduate and beyond | 0.2197*** (0.0745) | –0.0586 (0.1201) | 0.0373 (0.1103) | –0.0295 (0.1223) | –0.0460 (0.0463) | |
| White | –0.0897** (0.0368) | –0.1110*** (0.0422) | –0.0503 (0.0415) | –0.0509 (0.0810) | –0.0672* (0.0355) | |
| Employed | 0.0428 (0.0273) | |||||
| Unemployed | –0.0206 (0.0554) | –0.2504*** (0.0668) | 0.0396 (0.0664) | 0.0235 (0.1532) | ||
| Not in labor force | –0.0077 (0.0404) | –0.0627 (0.0513) | 0.0199 (0.0447) | –0.0074 (0.0832) | ||
| Income divided by poverty line | 0.0010*** (0.0003) | 0.0008** (0.0004) | 0.0010** (0.0004) | –0.0003 (0.0008) | –0.0082 (0.0304) | |
| Disabled | –0.0637* (0.0386) | –0.0333 (0.0584) | n.d. | n.d. | 0.0249 (0.0280) | |
| Disabled, not working | –0.0382 (0.0465) | 0.1179** (0.0505) | ||||
| Speaks English only | 0.0455 (0.0507) | –0.1448* (0.0838) | ||||
| Speaks no or poor English | 0.1690*** (0.0454) | |||||
| Non-U. S. citizen | –0.1545*** (0.0327) | 0.0697 (0.1011) | –0.2039* (0.1162) | |||
| Rural | –0.1000** (0.0472) | –0.1079** (0.0476) | –0.0276 (0.0548) | –0.0684 (0.1346) | 0.0145 (0.0542) | |
| Reported public assistance receipt | –0.2693*** (0.0549) | –0.2453*** (0.0632) | –0.3293*** (0.0722) | n.d. | –0.2283*** (0.0749) | |
| Reported housing assistance receipt | –0.0336 (0.0397) | –0.0248 (0.0481) | –0.1753*** (0.0409) | –0.2732*** (0.0871) | –0.1180*** (0.0305) | |
| Food Stamp receipt imputed | –0.3115*** (0.0647) | –0.3833*** (0.0899) | 0.3580*** (0.0552) | 0.1932* (0.1103) | –0.1029** (0.0525) | |
| Length of Food Stamp receipt spell | –0.0275*** (0.0034) | –0.0384*** (0.0036) | –0.0281*** (0.0051) | –0.0196** (0.0086) | –0.0452*** (0.0158) | |
| Administrative TANF receipt | 0.0658 (0.0446) | 0.0273 (0.0514) | 0.0986* (0.0580) | 0.2466*** (0.0766) | 0.0812 (0.0676) | |
| Linear time trend | 0.0222 (0.0157) | 0.0980*** (0.0373) | ||||
| Household had bad data record | 0.0936** (0.0450) | |||||
| Months since last admin. Food Stamp receipt | 0.0414*** (0.0132) | |||||
| Household in MD | 0.0893** (0.0442) | |||||
| Observations | 789 | 344 | 689 | 136 | 640 | |
↵Notes: The unreported omitted family type is multiple adults with children, the education category is some college, the employment category is employed, the race group is nonwhite, and the geographic area is within-MSA. n.d. indicates that the variable was controlled for, but the estimate was not disclosed by the Census Bureau. In the ACS, we also controls for mode of interview (mail-back, CATI, CAPI). For the CPS, samples are pooled across all years (2002–2005). In the SIPP, we also control for year dummies, number of members interviewed, whether there was no interview with the reference person or an interview with a household member with no PIK. “Household had a bad data record” indicates that the reference person refused to answer many related survey questions. For the SIPP, samples include both states, are collapsed to the wave level, and are pooled across all years (IL: 10/2000–10/2004, MD: 10/2000–12/2003). All analyses conducted using household weights adjusted for PIK probability. Standard errors in parentheses. *p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.