Table 4

Determinants of False Positives, Probit Average Derivatives, Households with Income Less than Twice the Poverty Line

ACSCPSSIPP
IllinoisMarylandIllinoisMarylandIL&MD
Single, no children

0.0026

(0.0177)

Single, with children

0.0214*

(0.0124)

Multiple adults, no children

–0.0337*

(0.0174)

Number of members 18 or older

–0.0024

(0.0034)

0.0053

(0.0050)

0.0092

(0.0067)

–0.0170

(0.0130)

0.0130**

(0.0061)

Number of members under 18

0.0069**

(0.0033)

–0.0020

(0.0036)

0.0044

(0.0049)

–0.0251**

(0.0120)

0.0142**

(0.0065)

Number of members PIKed

–0.0085**

(0.0038)

0.0060

(0.0040)

–0.0047

(0.0044)

0.0222*

(0.0118)

–0.0117**

(0.0048)

Age ≥50

–0.0225***

(0.0103)

–0.0063

(0.0075)

–0.0382***

(0.0086)

–0.0010

(0.0147)

–0.0100

(0.0109)

Male

–0.0106*

(0.0061)

0.0032

(0.0080)

–0.0130

(0.0104)

0.0106

(0.0094)

–0.0032

(0.0084)

Less than high school

0.0140**

(0.0068)

0.0063

(0.0099)

0.0193

(0.0134)

n.d.

0.0091

(0.0089)

High school graduate

–0.0032

(0.0085)

0.0111

(0.0126)

–0.0001

(0.0117)

0.0008

(0.0079)

0.0086

(0.0081)

College graduate and beyond

–0.0051

(0.0127)

White

–0.0239***

(0.0071)

–0.0082

(0.0083)

0.0046

(0.0098)

0.0094

(0.0096)

–0.0207**

(0.0083)

Employed

–0.0054

(0.0066)

–0.0261*

(0.0151)

–0.0016

(0.0117)

0.0012

(0.0089)

–0.0003

(0.0070)

Income divided by poverty line

–0.0001***

(0.0000)

–0.0001

(0.0001)

–0.0003***

(0.0001)

–0.0002**

(0.0001)

–0.0257***

(0.0069)

Disabled

0.0076

(0.0084)

–0.0069

(0.0084)

n.d.

n.d.

0.0441***

(0.0073)

Disabled, not working

0.0159*

(0.0082)

0.0226**

(0.0097)

Speaks no or poor English

0.0027

(0.0125)

Non-U.S. citizen

–0.0129

(0.0132)

Rural

–0.0051

(0.0088)

n.d.

0.0120

(0.0095)

Reported public assistance receipt

0.0442***

(0.0091)

0.0622***

(0.0186)

0.0957***

(0.0197)

0.0872***

(0.0332)

0.1020***

(0.0210)

Reported housing assistance receipt

0.0108

(0.0070)

0.0007

(0.0081)

0.0571***

(0.0146)

–0.0032

(0.0116)

0.0523***

(0.0089)

Food Stamp receipt imputed

0.0700***

(0.0110)

0.0447***

(0.0139)

0.0544***

(0.0113)

0.0443***

(0.0156)

0.0470***

(0.0130)

Administrative TANF receipt

–0.1093***

(0.0422)

Linear time trend

0.0018

(0.0047)

0.0000

(0.0056)

Household in MD

–0.0309*

(0.0163)

Observations3,3571,4551,4625042,333
  • Notes: The unreported omitted education category for the false negative probits is some college or more, the race group is nonwhite, the employment category is not employed, and the geographic area is within-MSA. n.d. indicates that the variable was controlled for, but the estimate was not disclosed by the Census Bureau. In the ACS, we also controls for mode of interview (mail-back, CATI, CAPI). For the CPS, samples are pooled across all years (2002–2005). In the SIPP, we also control for year dummies, number of members interviewed, whether there was no interview with the reference person or an interview with a household member with no PIK, and whether the reference person had a bad data record (refused to answer many related survey questions). For the SIPP, samples include both states, are collapsed to the wave level, and are pooled across all years (IL: 10/2000–10/2004, MD: 10/2000–12/2003). All analyses conducted using household weights adjusted for PIK probability. Standard errors in parentheses. *p< 0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.