Second-Stage Results for Downgrade from Higher Track—Population of Students Born in June or July
| 2002/03 | 2003/04 | 2004/05 | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cohort 1 (1998) | Coefficient | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| (standard error) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.00) | |
| Observations | 11,077 | 10,780 | 10,842 | 10,824 | 10,630 | |
| Cohort 2 (1997) | Coefficient | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| (standard error) | (0.01) | (0.00) | (0.00) | (0.01) | (0.00) | |
| Observations | 10,318 | 10,412 | 10,476 | 10,512 | 10,192 | |
| Cohort 3 (1996) | Coefficient | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| (standard error) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |
| Observations | 10,923 | 10,934 | 11,044 | 10,902 | 10,902 | |
| Cohort 4 (1995) | Coefficient | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| (standard error) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | |
| Observations | 11,061 | 11,069 | 10,787 | 10,787 | 10,787 | |
| Cohort 5 (1994) | Coefficient | 0.01 | 0.01 | −0.01 | 0.03** | 0.03* |
| (standard error) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.02) | |
| Observations | 10,744 | 10,396 | 10,396 | 10,396 | 10,396 | |
| Cohort 6 (1993) | Coefficient | 0.01 | 0.06** | 0.04** | − 0.02 | — |
| (standard error) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.02) | — | |
| Observations | 10,248 | 10,248 | 10,248 | 10,248 | — |
Source: Student-level data of the statistics on general and vocational schools for the state of Hessen 2002/03 to 2006/07 provided by the Bureau of Statistics of the State of Hessen (Hessisches Statistisches Landesamt). Authors’ own calculations. Data on students who are supposed to be in Grades 11–13 include imputed observations (see Section IIB).
Note: Two-stage least squares regressions of a binary indicator for downgrading from a higher track school on school-entry age, instrumented by assigned school-entry age. Lower track students are included in the regressions, although they cannot downgrade, to make the coefficients comparable with changes in coefficients of regressions with attending higher track school as the outcome variable.
↵* Significant at the 10 percent level.
↵** Significant at the 5 percent level. Documented coefficients refer to specifications without control variables. Effects are robust if available control variables (gender, region, and nationality) are included.