Table 5

Marginal Effects from the Model with Variation in Colleges: Predicted Change in the Probability of Completing Each Stage in the Educational Pipeline

VariablesConditional on Successfully Completing Previous Stage(s)Unconditional Total Effect
College Entry*College Degree†Health Professions‡Health Professions‡
Male  0.0011  0.0002  0.0291  0.0061
Black  0.2956  0.3074−0.0300  0.0044
Black*Male−0.0748−0.1004−0.0026−0.0040
Hispanic  0.1295  0.1154  0.0070  0.0053
Asian  0.1808  0.1709−0.0029  0.0051
SAT (100-point increase)  0.0968  0.1336  0.0277  0.0066
Dad’s education
    High school graduate  0.0757  0.0736  0.0262  0.0052
    College graduate  0.0794  0.1108  0.0121  0.0045
Black*Dad’s education
    High school graduate  0.0328  0.0460  0.0004  0.0017
    College graduate−0.0131−0.1163  0.0001−0.0038
Mom’s education
    High school graduate  0.0541  0.0841  0.0343  0.0062
    College graduate  0.0880  0.1042  0.0120  0.0051
Black*Mom’s education
    High school graduate−0.0962−0.1589  0.0005−0.0052
    College graduate−0.0226  0.0387  0.0001  0.0012
Rural−0.0591−0.0560−0.0133−0.0044
Rural*Black−0.0161  0.0989  0.0001  0.0032

  • ↵* Refers to individuals enrolling in nonvocational two-year or any four-year colleges or universities.

  • ↵† Refers to individuals receiving a baccalaureate degree from any four-year colleges or universities.

  • ↵‡ Refers to individuals with postbaccalaureate degree who choose an occupation in the health professions.

  • Note: Marginal effects represent the change in the conditional probability associated with a discrete change (0 to 1) in each of the binary variables listed in Column 1, with the exception of SAT score where we present the effect of a 100-point increase. The unconditional total effect of binary variable Xk on the probability of education/career outcome j is notationally described by (1/n)∑i[Pr(yij = 1 | Xi, Xik = 1) – Pr(yij = 1 | Xi, Xik = 0)]. Conditioning on successfully completing previous stages changes the marginal effect to (1/n)∑i[Pr(yij = 1 | Xi, Xik = 1) – Pr(yij = 1 | Xi, Xik = 0)]. Bolded effects are statistically significant at the 10 percent level or better.