First-Stage Estimates, 1900–36, Dependent Variable: Annual Malaria Death Rate (Per 100,000)
| Independent Variable | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Controls | Precipitation | Precipitation Squared | Temperature-Precipitation Interaction | Quadratic Trends | Preferred Specification | |
| TEMP222% · HIGH | 33.25 (11.11)*** | 31.71 (10.29)*** | 31.68 (10.38)*** | 23.35 (10.12)** | 21.00 (7.37)*** | 27.63 (8.92)*** |
| TEMP222% | −3.37 (4.28) | −5.09 (4.26) | −5.06 (4.32) | −6.77 (4.04) | 0.32 (3.05) | Dropped |
| [F-statistic on TEMP222S · HIGH and TEMP222S] | [4.8] | [4.9] | [4.8] | [3.1] | [4.9] | [9.6] |
| Weather controls3 | ||||||
| PRCP | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| PRCPSQD | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| TEMP222&-PRCP interaction | No | No | No | Yes | No | No |
| Fixed effects | ||||||
| Year fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| State fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| State-specific linear trends | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| State-specific quadratic trends | No | No | No | No | Yes | No |
↵Notes: * significant at 10 percent; ** significant at 5 percent; *** significant at 1 percent. Standard errors (in parenthesis) are clustered at the state level. All regressions are weighted by the underlying number of census observations in a given state-year cohort cell. Sample size is 1,147. All weather controls are allowed to vary by “high” and “low” states, respectively.