Table 4

First Test for Selective Migration

Tests for selective migration, effect on graduation rates, and substitution away from advanced courses
Sample: Schools that will have adopted APIP by 2008
	1	2	3	4	5	6^{^a}	7
	log grade 12 enrollment	log school enrollment	percent students earning TASP	log graduates	log of SAT/ACT takers	log graduates	percent 9th–12th graders taking advanced courses
First year	0.0037 [0.0113]	0.0139 [0.0146]	2.0803 [1.5921]	0.0099 [0.0148]	−0.0315 [0.0451]	0.0289 [0.0179]	−1.174 [1.453]
Second year	0.0036 [0.0154]	0.0171 [0.0210]	−0.2053 [1.8429]	0.0107 [0.0234]	−0.0482 [0.0868]	0.021 [0.0239]	−2.24 [1.262]
Third year and beyond	0.0355 [0.0321]	0.0372 [0.0244]	1.2166 [2.5610]	0.0196 [0.0350]	−0.0915 [0.0513]⁺	0.0509 [0.0287]⁺	−0.885 [1.358]
Grade 12 enrollment	N	N	Y	Y	Y	N	Y
Lag Grade 12 enrollment	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	N
Second lag of Grade 12 enrollment	Y	Y	N	N	N	Y	N
School enrollment	N	N	Y	Y	Y	N	Y
Lag school enrollment	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	N
Second lag of school enrollment	N	N	N	N	N	Y	N
Lag of Grade 11 enrollment	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y
Observations	463	463	578	578	578	463	578

Robust standard errors in brackets. Standard errors clustered at the school district level.
+ significant at 10 percent;
* significant at 5 percent; ** significant at 1 percent.
All regressions are based on a panel of 57 schools. All regressions include school fixed effects, year by propensity score decile fixed effects, and school demographic variables.
↵a This model does not include current or lagged Grade 12 or school enrollment, so that these estimates are conditional on grade 10 enrollments two years prior. This provides weak evidence that the APIP may increase the proportion of 10th graders who subsequently graduate.