Table 4

First Test for Selective Migration

Tests for selective migration, effect on graduation rates, and substitution away from advanced courses
Sample: Schools that will have adopted APIP by 2008
123456a7
log grade 12 enrollmentlog school enrollmentpercent students earning TASPlog graduateslog of SAT/ACT takerslog graduatespercent 9th–12th graders taking advanced courses
First year0.0037
[0.0113]
0.0139
[0.0146]
2.0803
[1.5921]
0.0099
[0.0148]
−0.0315
[0.0451]
0.0289
[0.0179]
−1.174
[1.453]
Second year0.0036
[0.0154]
0.0171
[0.0210]
−0.2053
[1.8429]
0.0107
[0.0234]
−0.0482
[0.0868]
0.021
[0.0239]
−2.24
[1.262]
Third year and beyond0.0355
[0.0321]
0.0372
[0.0244]
1.2166
[2.5610]
0.0196
[0.0350]
−0.0915
[0.0513]+
0.0509
[0.0287]+
−0.885
[1.358]
Grade 12 enrollmentNNYYYNY
Lag Grade 12 enrollmentYYNNNNN
Second lag of Grade 12 enrollmentYYNNNYN
School enrollmentNNYYYNY
Lag school enrollmentYYNNNNN
Second lag of school enrollmentNNNNNYN
Lag of Grade 11 enrollmentYYYYYNY
Observations463463578578578463578
  • Robust standard errors in brackets. Standard errors clustered at the school district level.

  • + significant at 10 percent;

  • * significant at 5 percent; ** significant at 1 percent.

  • All regressions are based on a panel of 57 schools. All regressions include school fixed effects, year by propensity score decile fixed effects, and school demographic variables.

  • a This model does not include current or lagged Grade 12 or school enrollment, so that these estimates are conditional on grade 10 enrollments two years prior. This provides weak evidence that the APIP may increase the proportion of 10th graders who subsequently graduate.