Specification | First Stage | No High School | Some College | BA Plus | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OLS | RF | IV | OLS | RF | IV | OLS | RF | IV | ||
Panel A: All eligibility | ||||||||||
1. Baseline | 1.009*** (0.059) | −0.033** (0.016) | −0.043*** (0.015) | −0.042*** (0.015) | 0.011 (0.022) | −0.019 (0.029) | −0.019 (0.028) | 0.028 (0.022) | 0.026 (0.025) | 0.026 (0.024) |
2. EITC and school spending | 1.013*** (0.059) | −0.032** (0.016) | −0.041*** (0.015) | −0.040*** (0.014) | 0.007 (0.020) | −0.016 (0.027) | −0.016 (0.026) | 0.022 (0.018) | 0.035 (0.022) | 0.034* (0.020) |
3. EITC, school spending, R-S-Y and R-A-Y FE | 1.019*** (0.148) | −0.009 (0.033) | −0.031 (0.048) | −0.029 (0.043) | 0.046 (0.040) | 0.000 (0.062) | −0.002 (0.054) | 0.014 (0.026) | 0.005 (0.049) | 0.006 (0.043) |
4. Baseline + R-S-Y and R-A-Y FE | 1.033*** (0.147) | −0.003 (0.032) | −0.023 (0.047) | −0.021 (0.041) | 0.044 (0.039) | −0.000 (0.060) | −0.003 (0.052) | 0.017 (0.027) | 0.013 (0.046) | 0.014 (0.040) |
Panel B: Federal eligibility | ||||||||||
5. Baseline | 0.220*** (0.032) | −0.033** (0.016) | −0.013*** (0.004) | −0.059*** (0.021) | 0.011 (0.022) | 0.004 (0.007) | 0.019 (0.030) | 0.028 (0.022) | 0.018*** (0.006) | 0.082*** (0.026) |
6. EITC and school spending | 0.223*** (0.032) | −0.032** (0.016) | −0.012*** (0.004) | −0.054** (0.021) | 0.007 (0.020) | −0.000 (0.007) | 0.000 (0.030) | 0.022 (0.018) | 0.011* (0.006) | 0.049** (0.025) |
Source: Authors’ estimation of Equations 3 and 4 in the text using 22–29-year-old respondents from the 2005–12 ACS.
Notes: Each cell in the table comes from a separate regression (N = 5480). The “OLS” columns refer to models that use a three-year moving average of actual eligibility as the independent variable, and the “RF” columns refer to models that use fixed simulated eligibility as the independent variable. The “IV” columns refer to models that instrument for actual eligibility using fixed simulated eligibility. All estimates include an indicator for the cell being nonwhite or not as well as race-by-age, race-by-calendar year, and race-by-state of birth fixed effects. Rows 3 and 4 include race by state of birth by calendar year (R-S-Y) fixed effects and race by age by calendar year (R-A-Y) fixed effects as shown in Equation 4. Estimates also include race by state of birth linear time trends. Standard errors clustered at the state of birth level are in parentheses:
↵*** indicates significance at the 1 percent level,
↵** indicates significance at the 5 percent level, and
↵* indicates significance at the 10 percent level.