Economic Conditions and Birth Rates, Adding Post-96 Interactions
| Ordinary Least Squares | Instrumental Variables | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| A. Unemployment rates | ||||||
| Unemployment rate | −0.008*** (0.002) | −0.009*** (0.002) | −0.013*** (0.001) | −0.022*** (0.007) | −0.027*** (0.008) | −0.023** (0.010) |
| State x post 1996 | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| State time trend x post 1996 | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes |
| Index 1 Time Varying Group Shares | Index 2 Predicted Employment Growth | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| B. Gender-specific labor demand | ||||||
| Male index, high school or less | 0.045*** (0.012) | 0.042** (0.012) | 0.025** (0.011) | 0.019*** (0.003) | 0.018*** (0.004) | 0.012*** (0.004) |
| Female index high school or less | −0.015 (0.013) | −0.011 (0.011) | −0.015 (0.011) | −0.009* (0.005) | −0.007 (0.005) | −0.010** (0.004) |
| State x post 1996 | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| State time trend x post 1996 | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes |
Notes: Dependent variable in Panel A is the log of births per 1,000 women aged 16–45. Dependent variable in Panel B is the log of births per 1,000 women aged 16–45 with a high school degree or less. Standard errors are Huber-White robust and clustered at the state level.
↵* p < 0.1,
↵** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01. Estimates are weighted by the number of women aged 16–45 in the relevant group. All regressions include state and year fixed effects, state time trends, and state-year level demographic controls.