Source: Authors’ estimation of Equations 3 and 4 in the text using 22–29-year-old respondents from the 2005–12 ACS.

Notes: We randomly assign age-state-year eligibility and fixed simulated eligibility, as a pair, across different age-state-year cells. This is done separately by race. We conduct 500 separate simulations for each outcome, both including and excluding state of birth by calendar year (R-S-Y) fixed effects and race by age by calendar year (R-A-Y) fixed effects. All estimates include an indicator for the cell being nonwhite or not as well as race-by-age fixed effects, race-by-calendar year fixed effects, and race-by-state of birth fixed effects. The table shows the mean estimate across all 500 runs, as well as the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles in parentheses. The range in parentheses thus shows the nonparametric 95 percent confidence interval. IV estimates are constructed by dividing the reduced form (RF) by the first stage, which also is estimated using this method. First stage estimates are available upon request from the authors.