Economic Conditions and Birth Rates
| Ordinary Least Squares | Instrumental Variables | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Unemployment rate | −0.001 (0.003) | −0.003 (0.004) | −0.008*** (0.002) | −0.016** (0.008) | −0.022** (0.009) | −0.022*** (0.007) |
| Percent Hispanic | 0.020*** (0.005) | 0.023*** (0.005) | ||||
| Percent Black | −0.001 (0.002) | 0.000 (0.002) | ||||
| Percent high school graduate | 0.003 (0.004) | 0.002 (0.004) | ||||
| Percent any college | 0.001 (0.003) | 0.000 (0.003) | ||||
| Percent aged 16–25 | 0.002 (0.003) | 0.001 (0.003) | ||||
| Percent aged 26–35 | 0.010*** (0.003) | 0.011*** (0.003) | ||||
| Percent aged 36–45 | −0.006* (0.003) | −0.007** (0.003) | ||||
| Percent aged 46–55 | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.005* (0.003) | ||||
| Percent aged 66 plus | 0.004 (0.004) | 0.003 (0.003) | ||||
| State time trends | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
| First stage statistics | ||||||
| Shift-share index | −0.698*** (0.107) | −0.647*** (0.126) | −0.636*** (0.124) | |||
| F-statistic | 42.00 | 26.02 | 25.88 | |||
| Probability > F | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |||
Notes: N = 1,530. The dependent variable is the log of the number of births per 1,000 women aged 16–45. Standard errors (in parentheses) are Huber-White robust and clustered at the state level.
↵* p < 0.1,
↵** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01. Estimates are weighted by the number of women aged 16–45 in each state-year cell. All regressions include state and year fixed effects.