Table 3

Alternative Specifications

A. Replacing BLS Unemployment Rate with BEA Employment Rate
	Ordinary Least Squares			Instrumental Variables
	1	2	3	4	5	6
Employment rate	0.001 (0.002)	0.003 (0.003)	0.007^{^***} (0.002)	0.012^{^*} (0.007)	0.023^{^**} (0.010)	0.024^{^***} (0.007)
First stage F-statistic				32.16	20.53	19.75
Probability > F				0.000	0.000	0.000
State time trends	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
Demographic controls	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes

B. Instrumental Variables Estimates: Earnings Growth Instrument
	7	8	9	10	11	12
Unemployment rate	0.020^{^**} (0.007)	0.022^{^**} (0.008)	0.020^{^**} (0.005)
Employment rate				0.017^{^**} (0.007)	0.030^{^***} (0.012)	0.027^{^***} (0.008)
First stage F-statistic	38.19	27.65	28.98	25.45	10.82	12.93
Probability > F	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.002	0.001
State time trends	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
Demographic controls	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes

C. Reduced Form Estimates: Predicted Employment and Earnings Growth
	13	14	15	16	17	18
Predicted employment growth	0.011^{^*} (0.006)	0.014^{^**} (0.006)	0.014^{^***} (0.004)
Predicted earnings growth				0.009^{^**} (0.004)	0.009^{^**} (0.004)	0.009^{^***} (0.003)
State time trends	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
Demographic controls	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes

Notes: N = 1,530. The dependent variable is the log of the number of births per 1,000 women aged 16–45. Standard errors (in parentheses) are Huber-White robust and clustered at the state level.
↵* p < 0.1,
↵** p < 0.05,
↵*** p < 0.01. Estimates are weighted by the number of women aged 16–45 in each state-year cell. All regressions include state and year fixed effects. Demographic controls include the fraction of residents who are black, the fraction of residents who are Hispanic, the fraction of residents who are high school graduates, the fraction of residents who are college graduates, and the fraction of residents in each of five age groups: 16–25, 26–35, 36–45, 46–55, and 66 and older.