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* Department of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics (Houghton Street, WC2A 2AE, London, United Kingdom). Email:

+ Department of Economics, University of Surrey and Centre for Economic Performance, Centre for Vocational Education Research. London School of Economics (Houghton Street, WC2A 2AE, London, United Kingdom). Email:

x Queen Mary, University of London. Email:

^ Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB), University of Barcelona and Centre for Economic Performance, Centre for Vocational Education Research, and London School of Economics. Email:

Maximilian Bach works at the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (corresponding author, . He was a researcher in the Department of Labour Markets and Social Insurance at ZEW Mannheim when this paper was written. Part of this paper were written while he was a Ph.D. student at the Graduate Center DIW and Humboldt University Berlin.

Stephan Sievert works at the Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. He was a guest researcher at DIW Berlin when this paper was written.

Kareem Haggag () is an Assistant Professor of Behavior and Decision Making at UCLA Anderson School of Management and a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER

Emily Leslie () is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Brigham Young University

Devin Pope () is a Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a Research Associate at NBER

Nolan Pope () is an Associate Professor of Economics at University of Maryland

Nathan Jones is an associate professor of special education at the Boston University Wheelock College of Education & Human Development.

Marcus A. Winters is a professor and chair of the Educational Leadership & Policy Studies department at the Boston University Wheelock College of Education & Human Development. He is also faculty director of the Wheelock Educational Policy Center ().